TORONTO — Canada’s main stock index eked out a gain Wednesday, while U.S. markets slumped later in the day to post small losses on the heels of fresh inflation data.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 32.47 points at 20,454.32.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 38.29 points at 33,646.50.The S&P 500 index was down 16.99 points at 4,091.95,while the Nasdaq composite was down 102.54 points at 11,929.34.
The big market news of the day was the latest U.S. inflation data, a key factor in the central bank’s upcoming rate decision.
Initially the markets focused on the headline inflation numbers, said Tamsin Wilding, fixed income analyst at Leith Wheeler.
U.S. inflation eased last month, rising five per cent in March compared with a year ago, after rising six per cent in February.
But stocks became choppier as the day wore on because some of the key metrics the Federal Reserve is eyeing were higher than hoped for, she said.
Core inflation was 5.6 per cent, ticking up for the first time in six months.
“That’s still too high and still providing discomfort for the Federal Reserve,” said Wilding.
The market is still largely expecting the central bank to announce another small interest rate hike next month, said Wilding.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada surprised nobody when it announced Wednesday it’s continuing to hold its overnight rate as it waits for the effects of higher borrowing costs to work their way through the economy.
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said rates could climb further if necessary.
“This is good news, but it is not job done,” Macklem said at a news conference in Ottawa.
“Our destination is the two per cent inflation target, and several things have to happen to get inflation all the way back to the two per cent target. Inflation expectations have to come down further, services price inflation and wage growth need to moderate, and corporate pricing behaviour has to normalize.”
The Bank of Canada also revised its GDP forecast up for 2023, but down for 2024.
Wilding said the market has a tendency to price in rate cuts, but the central bank is signalling that the interest rate is unlikely to come down this year.
“It’s marginal, but they’re still now expecting inflation to continue to moderate and continue to return to that two per cent target, but without any expense to growth. So that’s somewhat of a Goldilocks scenario that they’re forecasting,” she said.
“And that also wouldn’t justify a rate cut if you’re still seeing positive growth.”
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.37 cents US compared with 74.17 cents US on Tuesday.
The May crude contract was up US$1.73 at US$83.26 per barreland the May natural gas contract was down nine cents at US$2.09 per mmBTU.
The June gold contract was up US$5.90 at US$2,024.90 an ounceand the May copper contract was up six cents at US$4.08 a pound.
— With files from The Associated Press
This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 12, 2023.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX_CADUSD=X)
